HUNTER×HUNTER chapter 421

Scenario informed by Togashi’s posts

Announcement rate: Poisson process with a Gamma(1, 30) prior in days. Time without a new announcement is included. The delay after the tenth manuscript uses another Bayesian log-normal model: only 1 usable historical cycle, so strong prior dependence and no out-of-sample validation of this scenario. Reports may be delayed or incomplete.

λ ~ Gamma(1, rate = 30)
λ | posts ~ Gamma(7, rate = 138)
W | λ ~ Gamma(r = 3, rate = λ)
P(W ≤ w | posts) = I[w/(β+w)](r, α)
R = W + L ; log(L) | data ~ Student-t
P(R ≤ t) = ∫ F_L(t − w) p(w | posts) dw

Reference cycle: chapter 411, batch completed Feb 24, 2026, return Jun 29, 2026 — 125 days.

Centering the editorial-delay prior on 30 or 180 days instead of 90 moves the scenario median to February 2027 or April 2027.

Manuscript-completion reports used

• No. 421 · May 27, 2026
• No. 422 · Jul 1, 2026
• No. 423 · Jul 8, 2026
• No. 424 · Aug 9, 2026
• No. 425 · Aug 11, 2026
• No. 426 · Aug 25, 2026
• No. 427 · Sep 1, 2026

Reference: historical interruptions

Historical reference: every completed interruption since 2014 between consecutive numbered chapters, including short breaks. Duration runs from the last chapter to the return. Exact dates take precedence; otherwise assume 48 Jump issues per year.

Log duration is normally distributed. A normal–inverse-gamma prior represents uncertainty in its mean and variance. Integrating both yields a Student-t predictive distribution, conditioned on no return by the calculation date. Recomputed at each site build.

yᵢ = log(Tᵢ) ~ Normal(μ, σ²)
σ² ~ InvGamma(α₀, β₀) ; μ | σ² ~ Normal(μ₀, σ²/κ₀)
κₙ = κ₀+n ; μₙ = (κ₀μ₀+nȳ)/κₙ
αₙ = α₀+n/2
βₙ = β₀ + Σ(yᵢ−ȳ)²/2 + κ₀n(ȳ−μ₀)²/(2κₙ)
log(Tnew) | data ~ t₂αₙ(μₙ, √[βₙ(κₙ+1)/(αₙκₙ)])
P(T ≤ t | T > e, data) = 1 − S(t)/S(e)

μₙ = 5.3454 ; κₙ = 9.25
αₙ = 6.5 ; βₙ = 11.7051
df = 13 ; scale = 1.4126

Parameters, priors and sensitivity

The historical prior centers log(T) on log(365.2425 days), with κ₀ = 0.25, α₀ = 2 and β₀ = 1. Centering on 180 or 730 days instead gives medians of April 2027 and April 2027.

Using eligible history since 1998 gives a median of October 2026.

Short and long interruptions are heterogeneous; one distribution cannot describe every regime change. The 2014 cutoff and issue-to-day conversion are assumptions, not learned parameters. No medical information is inferred from posts. An official date hides these estimates.

Chronological validation on 6 returns: mean absolute error 436 days; 5/6 inside the 80% interval. Each prediction uses only previously completed interruptions.

Comparison with a fitted log-normal without parameter uncertainty: error 442 days. Mean log score: Bayes -7.9, reference -7.92 (higher is better). So few returns cannot establish superiority.

Sources and complete hiatus history